Showing posts with label Value investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Value investing. Show all posts

Dec 6, 2006

USG

In Millions of USD (except for per share items) 12 months Ending 2005-12-31 12 months Ending 2004-12-31 12 months Ending 2003-12-31 12 months Ending 2002-12-31 12 months Ending 2001-12-31 12 months Ending 2000-12-31
Net Income/Starting Line -1436 312 122 43 16 -259
Depreciation/Depletion 125 120 112 106 107 96
Amortization - - - - - -
Deferred Taxes -1261 49 59 67 134 -365
Non-Cash Items 3106 -1 16 96 33 900
Changes in Working Capital -28 -52 -72 130 -53 -8
Cash from Operating Activities 506 428 237 442 237 364
Capital Expenditures -198 -138 -111 -100 -109 -380
Free Cash Flow 308 290 126 342 128 -16
% change in FCF 6% 130% -63% 167% 0%  
Average Growth 48%          


  Growth 30% Duration 10
  Constant Growth Phase 5%    
  Discount Rate 7%    
Year FCF PV Factor Present Value
1 2005 308 1 308.00
2 2006 400 0.931 372.79
3 2007 521 0.867 451.20
4 2008 677 0.807 546.11
5 2009 880 0.751 660.98
6 2010 1,144 0.700 800.01
7 2011 1,487 0.651 968.29
8 2012 1,933 0.606 1,171.96
9 2013 2,512 0.565 1,418.48
10 2014 3,266 0.526 1,716.85
11 2015 4,246 0.489  
  Future value at Constant growth 176,374 0.456  
  Future Int Value   0.424  
  NPV 99,407.81    
  Total Common Share 90
   
  Value per Share 1014.53

   
  Margin of Safety 30%    
  Estimate 1,558.81    
  Current price $57