Dec 27, 2006

USG

The average price BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY purchased for the month of August is $41.60 for total of 9,613,812 shares. a 30% gain in less than 6 months. Wow...
The data can be viewed from Reuter, or click this link.

Dec 6, 2006

USG

In Millions of USD (except for per share items) 12 months Ending 2005-12-31 12 months Ending 2004-12-31 12 months Ending 2003-12-31 12 months Ending 2002-12-31 12 months Ending 2001-12-31 12 months Ending 2000-12-31
Net Income/Starting Line -1436 312 122 43 16 -259
Depreciation/Depletion 125 120 112 106 107 96
Amortization - - - - - -
Deferred Taxes -1261 49 59 67 134 -365
Non-Cash Items 3106 -1 16 96 33 900
Changes in Working Capital -28 -52 -72 130 -53 -8
Cash from Operating Activities 506 428 237 442 237 364
Capital Expenditures -198 -138 -111 -100 -109 -380
Free Cash Flow 308 290 126 342 128 -16
% change in FCF 6% 130% -63% 167% 0%  
Average Growth 48%          


  Growth 30% Duration 10
  Constant Growth Phase 5%    
  Discount Rate 7%    
Year FCF PV Factor Present Value
1 2005 308 1 308.00
2 2006 400 0.931 372.79
3 2007 521 0.867 451.20
4 2008 677 0.807 546.11
5 2009 880 0.751 660.98
6 2010 1,144 0.700 800.01
7 2011 1,487 0.651 968.29
8 2012 1,933 0.606 1,171.96
9 2013 2,512 0.565 1,418.48
10 2014 3,266 0.526 1,716.85
11 2015 4,246 0.489  
  Future value at Constant growth 176,374 0.456  
  Future Int Value   0.424  
  NPV 99,407.81    
  Total Common Share 90
   
  Value per Share 1014.53

   
  Margin of Safety 30%    
  Estimate 1,558.81    
  Current price $57    

Dec 5, 2006

Analyse MA (Mastercard)

In Millions of USD (except for per share items) 12 months Ending 2005-12 12 months Ending 2004-12 12 months Ending 2003-12 12 months Ending 2002-121 12 months Ending 2001-12 12 months Ending 2000-12
Net Income/Starting Line 266.72 238.06 -385.79 116.43 142.06 118.15
Depreciation/Depletion 46.3 51.28 52.95 42.07 43.02 34.73
Amortization 63.63 72.04 66.6 48.44 26.96 24.67
Deferred Taxes -54.04 40.84 -240.67 4.43 -2.73 3.28
Non-Cash Items 12.18 11.97 5.75 8.65 14.62 9.05
Changes in Working Capital -61.95 -70.39 691.6 89.86 -27.43 70.25
Cash from Operating Activities 272.85 343.8 190.44 309.87 196.5 260.12
Capital Expenditures -82 -78.16 -149.56 -101.36 -107.56 -154.44
Free Cash Flow 190.85 265.64 40.88 208.51 88.94 105.68
% -28% 550% -80% 134% 0%  
Average Growth 115%          

Growth at 115% would be almost unattainable. Assume 20% growth

  Average Growth 20% Duration 10
  Constant Growth Phase 5%    
  Discount Rate 7%    
Year Free Cash Flow PV Factor Present Value
1 2005 190.85 1 190.85
2 2006 229.02 0.931 213.23
3 2007 274.82 0.867 238.22
4 2008 329.79 0.807 266.15
5 2009 395.75 0.751 297.36
6 2010 474.90 0.700 332.22
7 2011 569.88 0.651 371.17
8 2012 683.85 0.606 414.69
9 2013 820.62 0.565 463.31
10 2014 984.74 0.526 517.63
11 2015 1181.69 0.489  
  Future value at Constant growth 49085.70 0.456  
  Future Int Value   0.424  
  NPV 28588.82    
  Total Common Share 100.00    
  Value per Share 285.89    
  Margin of Safety 30%    
  Estimate 200.12    
  Current price $57    

However its other financial data is not so promising:
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm):-1.36%
Operating Margin (ttm):16.78%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm):7.88%
Return on Equity (ttm):-2.45%

i.e . return to investor is negative... hmmmm..

Dec 2, 2006

Analysing Johnson & Johnson

  Growth 14% Duration 10
  Constant Growth Phase 0%    
  Discount Rate 9%    
Year Free Cash Flow PV Factor Present Value
1 2005 9,245 1 9,245.00
2 2006 10,536 0.917 9,666.15
3 2007 12,008 0.842 10,106.48
4 2008 13,684 0.772 10,566.88
5 2009 15,595 0.708 11,048.24
6 2010 17,773 0.650 11,551.54
7 2011 20,256 0.596 12,077.76
8 2012 23,084 0.547 12,627.96
9 2013 26,308 0.502 13,203.21
10 2014 29,982 0.460 13,804.68
11 2015 34,169 0.422  
  Future value at Constant growth 379,660 0.388  
  Future Int Value   0.356  
  NPV 274,899.43    
  Total Common Share 2,904.32    
  Value per Share 94.65    
  Margin of Safety 30%    
  Estimate 66.26    
  Current price $66